Global| Aug 12 2015U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens as Spending Ramps Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Government reported a $149.2 billion budget deficit during July compared to a $94.6 billion deficit during July of 2014. A $129.8 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first ten [...]
The Federal Government reported a $149.2 billion budget deficit during July compared to a $94.6 billion deficit during July of 2014. A $129.8 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first ten months of Fiscal Year 2015, the budget deficit increased to $465.5 billion compared to a $460.5 billion deficit in the first ten months of FY 2014. Projections from the Office Of Management & Budget (OMB) call for a budget deficit of $454.5 billion in FY 2015 compared to $483.4 billion last year, then a $429.4 billion deficit in FY 2016.
Government spending growth so far this fiscal year of 6.9% y/y compared to a 1.4% advance during all of FY 2014. It reflected a 30.4% y/y rise in spending for Education, Training, Employment & Social Services. Growth in outlays on health programs strengthened to 17.6% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare spending growth ramped up to 13.3% y/y while veterans benefits & services growth picked up to 12.3% y/y. Social Security payments growth was steady at 4.4% y/y and income security payments nudged just 0.6% higher y/y. These gains were countered by a 0.9% y/y decline in defense outlays while interest payments fell 3.0% y/y.
Quicker growth in outlays was accompanied by lessened 8.0% y/y growth in overall fiscal year-to-date revenues. So far this fiscal year, individual income taxes strengthened 11.6% y/y but growth in corporate income taxes eased to 9.4% y/y. Improved labor markets left social insurance taxes & contributions growing a lessened 3.8% y/y while excise taxes rose 1.6% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| US Government Finance | Jul | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-149.2 bil. | $483.4 bil. | $-680.2 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 |
| % of Total | FY'15 YTD | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.0% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 9.4 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 1.6 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.9 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 |
| National Defense | 18 | -0.9 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
| Health | 10 | 17.6 | 14.2 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
| Medicare | 14 | 13.3 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
| Income Security | 16 | 0.6 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 30.4 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 | -20.6 |
| Interest | 6 | -3.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
