Global| Jan 13 2016U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $14.4 billion budget deficit during December, reversing the $1.9 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $3.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Overall [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $14.4 billion budget deficit during December, reversing the $1.9 billion surplus twelve months earlier. A $3.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 3.5% versus the first three months of FY'15, pulled lower by a 12.5% y/y drop in corporate income tax payments. The decline compares to 7.2% growth last year and reflects the developing pressure on corporate profitability. Individual income taxes grew a moderate 4.1% y/y. Social insurance contributions advanced 5.3% y/y while excise taxes nudged 0.6% higher y/y.
Government spending advanced 7.1% y/y so far in FY'16, the quickest growth since early-2015. Social security payments surged 16.4% y/y while outlays on health programs advanced 7.9% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 4.6% y/y while veterans benefits & services payments advanced 11.2% y/y. Income security payments declined 1.5% y/y with the lower unemployment rate and outlays on education, training employment & social services programs fell 5.7% y/y. Interest payments grew 3.5% y/y following declines through most of last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| United States Government Finance | Dec. 2015 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | -$14.4 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 4.1 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -12.5 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 16 | -0.2 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 7.9 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 14 | -1.5 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 16.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -5.7 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | 3.5 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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