Global| Nov 12 2015U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues declined 0.8% versus October FY'14, dragged down by a 58.4% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes also grew by a muted 2.4% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions remained moderate at 4.0% y/y while excise taxes fell 5.7% y/y.
Government spending advanced 3.9% y/y, held back by a 4.6% y/y decline in defense outlays as well as a 24.7% y/y retreat in spending for education, training, employment & social services. Still on the strong-side was growth in outlays on health programs of 10.9% with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 9.8% y/y while Social Security spending growth was steady at 4.3% y/y. Veterans benefits & services payments grew 9.6% y/y. Offsetting these gains was an 8.7% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also declined 5.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| United States Government Finance | Oct. 2015 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | -$136.5 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -58.4 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -5.7 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 16 | -4.6 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 10.9 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 14 | -8.7 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -24.7 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | -5.3 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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