Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Aug 13 2007

U.S. Budget Deepened in July

Summary

The U.S. federal government in July posted a deficit of $36.3B versus a surplus of $27.5B during June and a deficit of $33.2B last July. The monthly figure was near Consensus expectations for a deficit of $35B. Analysts' forecasts of [...]


The U.S. federal government in July posted a deficit of $36.3B versus a surplus of $27.5B during June and a deficit of $33.2B last July. The monthly figure was near Consensus expectations for a deficit of $35B. Analysts' forecasts of the Federal budget benefit from access to the Government's Daily Treasury Statement, the data for which is available in Haver's DAILY database. The administration's latest Midsession Review of the Budget can be found here The July budget figures pulled the deficit for the ten months of FY07 to $157.3B, down from $239.6B during the first ten months of FY06. Net revenues grew 8.8% y/y during the first ten months of FY07. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) grew 9.0% as withheld taxes grew 9.7% during the first ten months but non-withheld taxes rose a stronger 13.6% due to estimated capital gains. Corporate income taxes (13% of total receipts) recovered a strong 10.7% y/y but estate & gift taxes fell 7.0%. Higher employment levels raised employment contributions by 4.4%.

U.S. net outlays grew 2.9% during this fiscal year's first ten months. Defense spending (19% of total outlays) grew 6.3% and Medicare expenditures (12% of outlays) surged by14.4%. Social security spending (21% of outlays) rose 5.7% but the government's interest expense rose by 5.1% y/y. Holding back the overall gain in expenditures were large declines in spending on energy and agriculture as well as a 3.0% decline in spending on international affairs and a 7.9% drop in spending on natural resources & environment.

US Government Finance   July June Y/Y FYTD 2007 FY 2006 FY 2004
Budget Balance $-36.3B $27.5B $-33.2B
(7/06)
-$247.7 -$318.7B -$412.7B
Net Revenues $170.4B $276.5B 6.7% 7.5% 11.8% 14.6%
Net Outlays $206.8B $249.0B 7.2% 2.5% 7.4% 7.8%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief