Global| Jul 31 2013U.S. ADP Survey Indicates Steady Improvement in Hiring
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The rate of new job creation remains positive. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 200,000 rise (1.8% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs this month. That followed revised increases of 198,000 and 141,000 during June [...]
The rate of new job creation remains positive. The ADP/Moody's
National Employment Report showed a 200,000 rise (1.8% y/y) in
non-farm private sector jobs this month. That followed revised increases
of 198,000 and 141,000 during June and May. July's increase was slightly
better than consensus expectations for a 180,000 advance, according to the
Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce
July payroll employment on Friday and a 187,000 rise in non-farm private
payrolls is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has
been a 96% correlation between the ADP and the BLS figures.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls rose a steady 177,000 (1.9% y/y). Jobs in professional & business services grew 49,000 (2.4% y/y), trade, transportation and utilities hiring rose 45,000 (1.8% y/y) while financial activities employment ticked up 4,000 (1.1% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 23,000 (1.0% y/y) but manufacturing jobs declined 5,000 (-0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 22,000 (3.4% y/y).
Hiring amongst small businesses rose a steady 82,000 (1.7% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls expanded 60,000 (1.6% y/y), still less than half the past peak rates of increase, while jobs at large-size companies rose an improved 58,000 (2.4% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 200 | 198 | 141 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 82 | 85 | 69 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 60 | 61 | 38 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 58 | 52 | 34 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 23 | 22 | -5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.2 |
| Manufacturing | -5 | 0 | -9 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Service-Producing | 177 | 176 | 146 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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