Global| Oct 30 2013U.S. ADP Survey Indicates Slowing Employment Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth has ratcheted down. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 130,000 rise (1.8% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs during October, the weakest gain in six months. It followed downwardly revised increases of [...]
Job growth has ratcheted down. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 130,000 rise (1.8% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs during October, the weakest gain in six months. It followed downwardly revised increases of 145,000 and 151,000 during September and August, last month reported as 166,000 and 159,000. Expectations were for a 151,000 rise in jobs. During the last three months, increases averaged 142,000. That compares to 220,000 this past January and 279,000 at the peak in February of last year.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls rose 107,000 last month (1.9% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation and utilities gained 40,000 (1.9% y/y), employment in professional & businesses increased 20,000 (2.5% y/y) but financial activities headcount fell 6,000 (+0.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) as manufacturing jobs inched up 4,000 (0.1% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 14,000 (3.5% y/y).
Hiring amongst small businesses rose a lessened 37,000 (1.7% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls rose 12,000 (1.6% y/y), roughly one-quarter of the gains early last year. Jobs at large-size companies rose 81,000 (2.4% y/y), the best gain since last November.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 130 | 145 | 151 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 37 | 68 | 55 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 12 | 18 | 60 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 81 | 59 | 36 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 24 | 15 | 7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.2 |
| Manufacturing | 4 | -1 | 4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Service-Producing | 107 | 130 | 143 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
