Global| Dec 02 2015U.S. ADP Reports Largest Payroll Increase Since June, Paced by Small Business
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 217,000 during November following a 196,000 October gain, revised from 182,000. The latest was firmer than expectations for a 190,000 [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 217,000 during November following a 196,000 October gain, revised from 182,000. The latest was firmer than expectations for a 190,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment, not government.
Small-businesses strengthened hiring by 81,000 workers (2.3% y/y) in November after a 91,000 rise in the prior month. Large businesses doubled the hiring rate m/m and added 74,000 (1.9% y/y) workers following a 37,000 October rise. That gain mostly reflected a jump in hiring by companies with 500 to 999 employees. Medium-sized businesses added to payrolls by 62,000 individuals (1.9% y/y) after a 67,000 increase.
Hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy increased a lessened 13,000 (1.0% y/y). Hiring in the construction sector posted a 16,000 increase (4.7% y/y), roughly half the increases during the two months. Factory sector hiring rebounded 6,000 (0.2% y/y), after two months of decline. Service industry hiring grew a strengthened 204,000 last month (2.3% y/y), the largest increase since June. Payrolls in professional & business services jumped 59,000 (2.4% y/y) while hiring in trade, transportation & utilities industries improved 30,000 (1.9% y/y), the smallest rise in three months. Employment in financial activities increased 9,000 (1.9% y/y), the smallest rise since April.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy is the title of today's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen and it is available here.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 217 | 196 | 199 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 81 | 91 | 52 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 62 | 67 | 46 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 74 | 37 | 101 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 13 | 22 | 8 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Construction | 16 | 32 | 34 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Manufacturing | 6 | -2 | -17 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Service-Producing | 204 | 174 | 191 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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