Global| Aug 02 2017U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Increase Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 178,000 during July (1.9% y/y) following a 191,000 June gain, revised from 158,000. May's increase was revised to 233,000 from 230,000. [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 178,000 during July (1.9% y/y) following a 191,000 June gain, revised from 158,000. May's increase was revised to 233,000 from 230,000. During Q2, monthly gains in employment averaged 190,700 per month after 257,300 in Q1. A 182,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 50,000 (1.3% y/y) following a 29,000 rise. Medium-sized payrolls increased 83,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 104,000 rise. Large-sized payrolls improved 45,000 (2.5% y/y), slightly below the gains in the prior two months.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 4,000 (1.7% y/y) following a 16,000 increase. These gains were below the Q1 average of 87,700. Construction sector payrolls improved 6,000 (3.2% y/y), down from a 51,300 average monthly gain in Q1. Jobs in the factory sector declined 4,000 (+0.7% y/y), well below the Q1 average of 31,000.
Private service sector payrolls rose 174,000 (2.0% y/y) and roughly equaled the growth earlier in the year. Professional & business services payrolls rose a fairly steady 65,000 (3.5% y/y). Education & health services employment rose 43,000 (2.2% y/y) after a 36,000 gain. The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs increased 24,000 (1.1% y/y). The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 15,000, down by more than half from the increases earlier in the year. Financial activities jobs improved 13,000 (1.9% y/y) and remained nearly the slowest increase of the last four years. Employment in the information sector increased a moderate 8,000 (-0.5% y/y) after a 1,000 rise.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 178 | 191 | 233 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 50 | 29 | 62 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 83 | 104 | 110 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 45 | 58 | 61 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 4 | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Construction | 6 | 12 | 21 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Manufacturing | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Service-Producing | 174 | 175 | 206 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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