Global| May 06 2020U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Crater
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Monthly decline sets record. • All sectors hit hard. • Leisure & hospitality businesses pace the decline. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private payrolls during April fell 20.236 million (-14.8% y/y) [...]
• Monthly decline sets record.
• All sectors hit hard.
• Leisure & hospitality businesses pace the decline.
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private payrolls during April fell 20.236 million (-14.8% y/y) following a 149,000 drop in March, revised from -27,000. The latest figure compared to a 22.000 million decline expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ADP report is based on data through April 12th.
Large payrolls were notably hard hit and declined 8.963 million (-12.0% y/y after rising 21,000 in March. Small payrolls followed and declined 6.005 million (-18.4% y/y) after falling 146,000 in March. Medium-sized payrolls were off 5.269 million (-16.7% y/y) after falling 24,000.
Within industry sectors, employment amongst goods-producing firms weakened 4.229 million (-20.1% y/y) last month after a 38,000 fall. Construction sector payrolls were down 2.447 million last month and were off by roughly one-third y/y. Factory sector employment declined 1.674 million (-13.4% y/y). Employment in the natural resource & mining sector weakened 78,000 (-12.8% y/y), continuing its long pattern of decline.
Employment growth in the private service sector collapsed 16.007 million (-13.7% y/y) after declining 111,000 March. An 8.607 million decline (-50.7% y/y) in the leisure & hospitality sector paced the weakness as it came after an 80,000 March drop. Trade, transportation & utilities payrolls, the largest sector, posted a 3.440 million decline (-11.9% y/y). Education & health services jobs fell 971,000 (-1.9% y/y) after a long period of monthly gains. Financial activities payrolls weakened 216,000 (-1.2% y/y). Employment in the professional & business services sector fell 1.167 million (-4.0% y/y). Information sector payrolls declined 309,000 (-11.3% y/y).
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | -20,236 | -149 | 147 | -14.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | -6,005 | -146 | 57 | -18.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | -5,289 | -24 | 57 | -16.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | -8,963 | 21 | 33 | -12.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Goods-Producing | -4,229 | -38 | 5 | -20.1 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Construction | -2,477 | -35 | 14 | -32.4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Manufacturing | -1,674 | 0 | -6 | -13.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Service-Producing | -16,007 | -111 | 142 | -13.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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