Global| May 02 2018U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Slips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 204,000 during April following a 228,000 March increase, revised from 241,000. A 201,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 204,000 during April following a 228,000 March increase, revised from 241,000. A 201,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far this year, payrolls have risen an average 229,000 per month versus a 185,000 monthly average during 2017. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private-sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business hiring increased 62,000 (1.1% y/y) in April and by an average 57,000 this year. Medium-sized payrolls gained 88,000 (2.2% y/y) and by an average 101,000 in 2018. Large-sized payrolls improved 54,000 (2.8% y/y) versus a 71,000 average this year.
Private service-sector payrolls increased a lessened 160,000 (1.8% y/y), the weakest increase since November and down from this year's average of 175,000. Professional & business services payrolls rose an improved 58,000 (2.8% y/y). Education & health services employment rose a weakened 39,000 (2.1% y/y). Employment in the leisure & hospitality sector gained a steady 36,000 (2.0% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs rose a lessened 14,000 (1.1% y/y), the weakest gain in six months. Financial activities jobs rose 7,000 (1.5% y/y), the weakest rise also in six months. Employment in the information sector eased a steady 2,000 (-0.7% y/y). Payrolls here have been falling since early-2016.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose a steady 44,000 (2.3% y/y). The 27,000 increase (3.3% y/y) in construction sector payrolls was improved from last year's 19,000 average. Jobs in the factory sector rose 10,000 (1.5% y/y) versus last year's 15,000 average. In the natural resource & mining sector, jobs rose a steady 7,000 (6.1% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 204 | 228 | 241 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 62 | 42 | 59 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 88 | 120 | 101 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 54 | 66 | 81 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 44 | 53 | 70 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Construction | 27 | 27 | 34 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Manufacturing | 10 | 18 | 31 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Service-Producing | 160 | 175 | 170 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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