Global| Jul 05 2018U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.8% y/y) during June following a 189,000 May gain, revised from 178,000. A 185,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.8% y/y) during June following a 189,000 May gain, revised from 178,000. A 185,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Gains in employment recently have decelerated. During the last three months, ADP payrolls have grown an average of 179,000, down from 227,000 averaged in the first three months of the year and 185,000 averaged during 2017. During the last ten years, there has been a 95% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private-sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 29,000 (1.0% y/y) in June down from last year's 56,000 average. Medium-sized payrolls gained 80,000 (2.2% y/y) versus 74,000 per month in 2017. Large-sized payrolls improved 69,000 (2.9% y/y) in contrast to an average of 55,000 last year.
Private service-producing payrolls increased 148,000 (1.8% y/y), on a par with increases earlier this year and throughout 2017. Professional & business services payrolls rose a lessened 33,000 (2.5% y/y), but education & health services employment rose an improved 46,000 (2.0% y/y). Employment in the leisure & hospitality sector increased a steady 32,000 (2.1% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs firmed 24,000 (1.1% y/y). Financial activities jobs gained 7,000 (1.5% y/y). Employment in the information sector declined 2,000 (-0.2% y/y), the second monthly decline this year.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 29,000 (2.3% y/y), down from an average 51,000 earlier in the year. The 13,000 increase (3.1% y/y) in construction sector payrolls was slightly slower than averaged last year. Jobs in the factory sector rose a fairly steady 12,000 (1.6% y/y). Higher oil prices strengthened job growth in the natural resource & mining sector by 5,000 (6.7% y/y) and compared to negative readings in 2016.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 177 | 189 | 170 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 29 | 46 | 50 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 80 | 90 | 73 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 69 | 53 | 47 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 29 | 49 | 37 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Construction | 13 | 26 | 15 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Manufacturing | 12 | 16 | 14 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Service-Producing | 148 | 140 | 133 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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