Global| Dec 06 2017U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Eases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 190,000 (2.0% y/y) during November following an unrevised 235,000 October gain. A 188,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 190,000 (2.0% y/y) during November following an unrevised 235,000 October gain. A 188,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far this year, payroll increases have averaged 208,000 per month after an average 181,000 last year. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private-sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls in November increased 50,000 (1.3% y/y) and have risen an average of 58,000 this year. Large-sized payrolls increased 41,000 (2.8% y/y), down from 63,000 averaged this year. Medium-sized payrolls strengthened 99,000 (2.4% y/y), improved versus an average 87,000 so far in 2017.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 36,000 (2.9% y/y), the weakest increase since July, and down from this year's 49,000 average. Construction sector payrolls fell 4,000 (+4.7% y/y), the first decline since April. Jobs in the factory sector gained an improved 40,000 (1.8% y/y).
Private service-sector payrolls increased a steady 155,000 (1.9% y/y) in November. Professional & business services payrolls rose 47,000 (3.6% y/y), slightly below this year's 63,000 average. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 25,000 (2.4% y/y) following October's 45,000 increase. Education & health services employment rose 54,000 (2.0% y/y), the strongest rise in six months. Financial activities jobs rose just 7,000 (1.7% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs rebounded 36,000 (0.7% y/y) following a 50,000 decline. Employment in the information sector fell 13,000 (-2.7% y/y), where payrolls have been falling since early last year.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Rep | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 190 | 235 | 96 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 50 | 67 | -28 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 99 | 74 | 55 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 41 | 94 | 70 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 36 | 85 | 44 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Construction | -4 | 62 | 34 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Manufacturing | 40 | 22 | 11 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Service-Producing | 155 | 150 | 52 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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