Global| May 01 2013U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Shows Greatly Reduced Hiring
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market is losing forward momentum. That's the indication from the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report which showed a 119,000 rise (1.6% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs last month. That followed downwardly revised [...]
The labor market is losing forward momentum. That's the indication from the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report which showed a 119,000 rise (1.6% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs last month. That followed downwardly revised increases of 131,000 and 199,000 during March and February, last month reported as 158,000 and 238,000, respectively. April's growth disappointed Consensus expectations for a 160,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce April payroll employment on Friday and a 170,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the ADP and the BLS figures.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls gained a greatly diminished 113,000 (1.7% y/y). Jobs in professional & business services grew 20,000 (2.2% y/y), employment in trade, transportation and utilities rose 29,000 (1.5% y/y) while financial activities employment gained just 8,000 (1.0% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls increased only 6,000 (0.9% y/y) but manufacturing payrolls fell 10,000 (-0.0% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 15,000 (2.6% y/y).
Hiring amongst small businesses rose 50,000 (1.4% y/y), less than half the earlier peak rates of increase. Medium sized firms' payrolls gained 26,000 (1.4% y/y), a rise down by more than three-quarters from the peak while jobs at large-size companies rose a relatively stable 43,000 (2.1% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 119 | 131 | 199 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 50 | 60 | 85 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 26 | 29 | 65 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 43 | 42 | 48 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.2 |
| Manufacturing | -10 | 4 | 8 | -0.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Service-Producing | 113 | 124 | 167 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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