Global| Feb 05 2014U.S. ADP Job Increase Slows With Severe Weather Conditions
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job creation moderated last month with heavy snowfalls. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 175,000 rise (2.0% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during January, the weakest increase since August. Expectations were [...]
Job creation moderated last month with heavy snowfalls. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 175,000 rise (2.0% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during January, the weakest increase since August. Expectations were for a 185,000 gain in the Action Economics survey. Last month's rise followed increases of 227,000 and 288,000 during December and November, last month reported as 238,000 and 229,000. During the last three months job increases averaged 230,000, below the peak of 279,000 in February of 2012.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Improvement in service-producing payrolls led job growth last month with a gain of 160,000 (2.1% y/y). Jobs in professional and business services increased 49,000 (2.9% y/y), transportation and utilities employment grew 31,000 (1.9% y/y) while financial activities headcount remained unchanged (0.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 15,000 (1.4% y/y), the weakest gain since August. Factory sector employment declined 12,000 (0.3% y/y) while construction payrolls improved by 25,000 (3.5% y/y), the weakest rise since October.
Hiring amongst small businesses rose 76,000 (2.0% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls advanced 66,000 (1.5% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 35,000 (2.5% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 175 | 227 | 288 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 76 | 108 | 133 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 66 | 53 | 80 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 35 | 65 | 75 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Goods-Producing | 15 | 50 | 59 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing | -12 | 16 | 22 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Service-Producing | 160 | 177 | 230 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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