Global| Jun 03 2015U.S. ADP: Job Growth Is Improving
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 201,000 during May following a 165,000 April increase, revised from 169,000. The latest rise was the firmest since January and beat [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 201,000 during May following a 165,000 April increase, revised from 169,000. The latest rise was the firmest since January and beat consensus expectations for a 188,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.
Small-sized payrolls jumped 122,000 (2.7% y/y), the firmest rise increase since December. Medium-sized payrolls rose a steady 65,000 (2.3% y/y) in May. Large payrolls rebounded with a 13,000 increase (1.7% y/y) though that still was down from the 80,000 increase in September.
Employment in the goods-producing sector nudged 9,000 higher (2.1% y/y), compared to a 64,000 peak rise in September. Hiring in the construction sector remained firm and posted a 27,000 increase (5.3% y/y) while manufacturing sector businesses shed another 5,000 workers (+1.0% y/y), the third consecutive month of decline. Jobs in the service sector increased 192,000 (2.4% y/y), the strongest gain since December. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 56,000 (2.0% y/y). Professional & business employment gained 28,000 (2.9% y/y) while employment in the financial sector improved 12,000 (1.7% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 201 | 165 | 176 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 122 | 97 | 110 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 65 | 65 | 60 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Construction | 27 | 24 | 19 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Manufacturing | -5 | -8 | -1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Service-Producing | 192 | 164 | 175 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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