Global| May 06 2015U.S. ADP: Job Growth Is Disappointing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 169,000 during April following a 175,000 March gain, revised from 189,000. The latest rise was the weakest since January of last year [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 169,000 during April following a 175,000 March gain, revised from 189,000. The latest rise was the weakest since January of last year and down from 296,000 last June. It disappointed consensus expectations for a 198,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.
Small-sized payrolls improved 94,000 (2.7% y/y), the weakest rise in three months. Medium-sized payrolls rose a moderate 70,000 (2.4% y/y) in April compared to a 123,000 gain six months earlier. Large payrolls nudged 5,000 higher (1.8% y/y), down from an 81,000 increase back in September.
Employment in the goods producing sector slipped 1,000 (+2.2% y/y), compared to a 64,000 rise in September. Hiring in the construction sector advanced 23,000 (5.1% y/y) while manufacturing sector businesses shed 10,000 workers (+1.1% y/y). Jobs in the service sector increased a modest 170,000 (2.4% y/y), down from the 248,000 pace reached last June. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 44,000 (1.9% y/y). Professional & business employment gained 35,000 (3.0% y/y) while employment in the financial sector improved 8,000 (1.7% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 169 | 175 | 200 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 94 | 105 | 102 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 70 | 64 | 52 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | -1 | 3 | 17 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Construction | 23 | 21 | 25 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Manufacturing | -10 | -3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Service-Producing | 170 | 172 | 182 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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