Global| Apr 03 2013U.S. ADP Employment Survey Indicates Slower Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that growth in private sector jobs eased last month to its least since October. The 158,000 gain (1.7% y/y) followed a 238,000 February increase, initially reported as 198,000. Last [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that growth in
private sector jobs eased last month to its least since October. The
158,000 gain (1.7% y/y) followed a 238,000 February increase, initially
reported as 198,000. Last month's growth disappointed Consensus
expectations for a 197,000 advance, according to the Action Economics
survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce March payroll
employment on Friday and a 200,000 rise is the consensus projection.
During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the
monthly ADP and the BLS figures.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls provided meaningful job growth with a 152,000 rise (1.8% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls increased just 7,000 (1.0% y/y), while manufacturing payrolls rose 6,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls were unchanged (2.5% y/y). Hiring amongst small businesses provided the most payroll growth with a 74,000 (1.5% y/y) increase. Medium sized firms' payrolls gained 37,000 (1.4% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 47,000 (2.2% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 158 | 238 | 176 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 74 | 101 | 106 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 37 | 76 | 82 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 47 | 61 | -12 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 7 | 38 | 27 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.2 |
| Manufacturing | 6 | 9 | -5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Service-Producing | 152 | 199 | 150 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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