Global| Mar 25 2010The Technology Sector Is Firming
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco generates a figure called the "Tech Pulse Index" to follow developments in the U.S. technology sector. It is designed to be a summary statistic that tracks the health of this sector in a [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco generates a figure called the
"Tech Pulse Index" to follow developments in the U.S. technology
sector. It is designed to be a summary statistic that tracks the health
of this sector in a timely manner. Lately, it has been flashing a
signal of solid recovery with activity at the highest level since the
summer of '08.
During 4Q09, the index
expanded by 33.7% (AR) following a lesser 3Q gain. These gains followed
four negative readings during the recession which totaled 25.8%. The
historical relationship of the index to the sector is quite good,
having
an 92% correlation with the quarterly change in real information
processing equipment & software spending in the National Income
& Product Accounts during the last twenty years.
The index is made up of several indicators: 1) The index of industrial production of computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors, 2) payroll employment in the industries of computer and electronic product manufacturing, telecommunications, web search portals and data processing, computer systems design & related services, 3) real private nonresidential investment in computers & peripheral equipment, software, & communications equipment, 4) real personal consumption expenditures on computers, peripherals and software, 5) manufacturers' shipments of computers and electronic products in current dollars (used for January 1992 onwards.)
The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Tech Pulse Index (FRB San Francisco) | February | January | December | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index Level (Jan. 2000 = 100) | 94.0 | 87.5 | 84.0 | 87.7 | 107.2 | 102.9 |
| Q/Q Chg. | 33.7% | 17.3% | -6.1% | -18.2% | 4.2% | 9.9% |
| Y/Y Chg. | -1.6% | -18.8% | -25.8% | -- | -- | -- |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
