Global| Feb 26 2018Texas Factory Sector Index Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the February General Business Activity Index improved to 37.2, its highest level since December 2005. Strength in production, shipments and [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the February General Business Activity Index improved to 37.2, its highest level since December 2005. Strength in production, shipments and employment led the improvement in the overall index. The workweek series ticked higher m/m and remained up sharply from the 2016 low.
Finished goods prices received held at the highest level since early-2011 following the improvement since 2015. The raw materials prices measure also strengthened versus the 2015 low. The cost of labor also increased as wages & benefits strengthened to the highest level since October 2006.
The index of expected business conditions in six months eased m/m, but remained near the 2004 high. Most of the sub-series slipped m/m but remained stable y/y. Expected wages & benefits continued to strengthen versus last year. The future employment index backed away from its record high as did the measure of expected wages & benefits.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 37.2 | 33.4 | 29.7 | 24.5 | 20.4 | -8.8 | -12.5 |
| Production | 27.9 | 16.8 | 32.8 | 16.7 | 19.5 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 15.3 | 15.5 | 21.4 | 2.0 | 10.0 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
| Number of Employees | 19.1 | 15.2 | 20.4 | 9.6 | 10.9 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
| Wages & Benefits | 32.2 | 23.3 | 25.1 | 19.5 | 21.7 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 22.5 | 22.3 | 17.9 | 19.5 | 12.3 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 40.6 | 44.5 | 40.9 | 37.0 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
| Production | 46.0 | 51.6 | 47.4 | 46.4 | 46.6 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 37.5 | 40.4 | 40.1 | 39.9 | 37.8 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
| Number of Employees | 34.0 | 44.5 | 36.6 | 33.9 | 35.2 | 16.7 | 14.7 |
| Wages & Benefits | 49.7 | 56.9 | 44.2 | 45.0 | 43.6 | 34.8 | 33.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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