Global| Sep 25 2017Texas Factory Sector Growth Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the September General Business Activity Index rose to 21.3 from 17.0 in August. The index was at the highest point since February. The [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the September General Business Activity Index rose to 21.3 from 17.0 in August. The index was at the highest point since February. The shipments index strengthened to the highest level of the economic expansion and the unfilled orders index also rose. The delivery time index suggested the slowest rate of product delivery in six months. The employment index rose to the highest level since April 2014 and the employee workweek also lengthened. Capital expenditures remained strong. Offsetting these positive indications was the growth rate of new orders which eased slightly while the production index also slipped.
On the pricing front, the index of prices paid for finished goods rose to the highest level since February. Raw materials pricing strengthened as well. As for labor pricing, the wages & benefits index eased but remained up sharply from the lows early last year.
The index for general business activity in six months rose to the highest level since March. Expected new orders and production improved slightly. Expectations for employment and the length of the average workweek gained, but expected wages & benefits weakened. The expected delivery times index also declined sharply.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 21.3 | 17.0 | 16.8 | -2.1 | -8.8 | -12.5 | 8.4 |
| Production | 19.5 | 20.3 | 22.8 | 17.6 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 14.5 |
| Growth Rate of Orders | 9.7 | 11.7 | 12.2 | -3.4 | -7.3 | -11.8 | 4.7 |
| Number of Employees | 16.3 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 1.9 | -4.9 | -0.4 | 11.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 17.5 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | -1.6 | -8.5 | 8.3 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 34.5 | 29.2 | 31.6 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 17.4 |
| Production | 46.5 | 43.1 | 48.8 | 31.4 | 35.8 | 31.1 | 42.7 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 35.8 | 37.1 | 32.8 | 19.7 | 24.3 | 20.7 | 31.5 |
| Number of Employees | 41.3 | 30.8 | 36.2 | 14.8 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 28.6 |
| Wages & Benefits | 39.8 | 44.3 | 45.9 | 31.9 | 34.8 | 33.2 | 43.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
