Global| May 24 2002Strong 1Q GDP Little Revised
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
GDP growth last quarter was revised down slightly versus Consensus expectations for a slight upward revision to 5.9% growth. The downward revision reflected weaker domestic demand growth versus the advance report. Real PCE rose 3.2% [...]
GDP growth last quarter was revised down slightly versus Consensus expectations for a slight upward revision to 5.9% growth.
The downward revision reflected weaker domestic demand growth versus the advance report. Real PCE rose 3.2% (AR) versus 3.5% reported initially. Residential investment rose 14.6% versus the advance 15.7% and fixed capital investment declined 2.3% versus a 0.5% decline reported earlier.
Trade sector deterioration sapped less from GDP growth as export growth of 5.3% was revised down less than imports of 12.9%.
Production increases to slow the rate of inventory decumulation had a larger positive effect on GDP growth as inventories fell at a $25.7B rate versus a $36.2 decumulation rate in the advance report.
Inflation was tame in 1Q but revised up slightly.
Corporate profits rose at a 2.0% rate following a 4Q 93.4% surge.
| Chained '96 $, % AR | 1Q'02 (Prelim) | 1Q'02 (Adv) | 4Q '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 5.6% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Inventory Effect | 3.5% | 3.1% | -2.2% | 0.0% | -1.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Final Sales | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Trade Effect | -1.1% | -1.2% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| Chained GDP Price Deflator | 1.0% | 0.8% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
by Tom Moeller May 24, 2002
Sales of new single family homes rose much more than expected last month and March sales were revised higher. Sales data were revised back to January of 2000.
April sales of 880,000 were expected.
Sales were down in each of the country’s regions except the Midwest where they surged 33.8% m/m.
The median price of a new home rose 4.4% to $185,800, +6.1% y/y.
The rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage averaged 6.99% in April, has edged lower in May and is down from 7.07% in December.
The new home sales data reflect current sales versus the existing home sales figure which reflect closings on past sales.
| Homes Sales (000s, AR) | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Single-Family | 915 | 906 | 1.6% | 908 | 880 | 879 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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