Global| Oct 18 2006Rise in Housing Starts Surprising
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts in September rose for only the third month this year. The 5.9% increase to 1.772M units fully recovered all of the prior month's little revised 4.9% decline and easily beat Consensus expectations for a slight decline to [...]
Housing starts in September rose for only the third month this year. The 5.9% increase to 1.772M units fully recovered all of the prior month's little revised 4.9% decline and easily beat Consensus expectations for a slight decline to 1.64M starts.
Starts nevertheless remained 21.8% below the peak this past January.
Single-family starts recovered 4.3% last month to 1.43M and recovered most of the prior month's 5.4% decline. Multi family starts were stronger and popped 12.7% after three consecutive months of sharp decline.
By region, single family housing starts rose everywhere except in the Northeast where starts fell 12.1% (-29.7% y/y). In the West single family starts inched up 0.9% m/m (-30.8% y/y) but in the South starts recovered 8.5% (-8.4% y/y). Single family starts in the Midwest also were higher by 3.9% (-33.0% y/y).
Building permits fell 6.3% to the lowest level since 2001. Permits to start singe family homes in addition fell hard by 6.0% (-32.1% y/y), also to the lowest since 2001.
How Resilient Is the Modern Economy to Energy Price Shocks? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | September | August | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,772 | 1,674 | -17.9% | 2,073 | 1,950 | 1,854 |
| Single-family | 1,426 | 1,367 | -20.3% | 1,719 | 1,604 | 1,505 |
| Multi-family | 346 | 307 | -6.0% | 354 | 345 | 349 |
| Building Permits | 1,619 | 1,727 | -27.7% | 2,159 | 2,058 | 1,888 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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