Global| May 14 2002Retail Sales Strength Fueled by Gasoline and Autos
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales rose more than expected last month due to higher auto sales. March sales were revised down slightly. Excluding autos also rose more than expected but March was revised down slightly. Higher gasoline prices boosted [...]
Total retail sales rose more than expected last month due to higher auto sales. March sales were revised down slightly. Excluding autos also rose more than expected but March was revised down slightly.
Higher gasoline prices boosted sales at gasoline service stations by 2.0%. Excluding gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.9% following no change in March.
Sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics fell 0.7%, the third monthly decline this year.
Sales at clothing and accessory stores rose 0.7% following a 0.3% dip in March.
Sales at general merchandise stores jumped 1.2%, the second strong monthly gain this year.
Unit sales of domestic and imported light vehicles rose 5.6% in April to 17.36M units (SAAR).
| April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.2% | 0.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Excluding Autos | 1.0% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
by Tom Moeller May 14, 2002
Chain store sales in the latest week gave up some of the prior week's surge. Sales fell 0.5% according to BTM-UBSW during the first full week of May.
Despite the weekly decline, May sales are up 1.1% so far versus the April average.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 5/11/02 | 5/04/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 405.8 | 407.7 | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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