Global| Jan 15 2002Retail Sales Firmer Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales fell less than expected last month and November sales were revised up to show less of a decline. Less autos, sales fell about as expected. November results were revised up. Strength in sales of furniture, home furnishings [...]
Retail sales fell less than expected last month and November sales were revised up to show less of a decline.
Less autos, sales fell about as expected. November results were revised up.
Strength in sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics (+1.7%) and at clothing and accessory stores (+2.6%) offset large declines in sales at gasoline service stations (-4.2%) and building materials dealers (-1.9%).
The decline in sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers was modest (-0.1%) given a sharp 8.6% decline in unit sales of light vehicles.
Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.5%, the third consecutive monthly increase.
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| · Retail sales fell less than expected last month and November sales were revised up to show less of a decline. · Less autos, sales fell about as expected. November results were revised up. · Strength in sales of furniture, home furnishings and electronics (+1.7%) and at clothing and accessory stores (+2.6%) offset large declines in sales at gasoline service stations (-4.2%) and building materials dealers (-1.9%). · The decline in sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers was modest (-0.1%) given a sharp 8.6% decline in unit sales of light vehicles. · Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.5%, the third consecutive monthly increase. |
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| Retail Sales | Dec '01 | Nov '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1% | -0.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% |
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2002
Chain store sales rose 0.6% in the week following New Year's, recouping all of the decline during the first week of the year.
The results were encouraging, and a buildup of strong upward momentum may be underway.
So far, January sales are 1.6% above the average of December.
During the last five years there has been a 56% correlation between the annual percent change in chain store sales and retail sales at general merchandise stores.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 01/12/02 | 01/05/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 397.4 | 395.0 | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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