Global| Jul 11 2002Producer Prices Up Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Finished producer prices rose as expected last month. It was the first increase in prices in three months. Core finished goods prices rose slightly more than expected but are up just 0.1% year to date. Energy prices were unchanged [...]
Finished producer prices rose as expected last month. It was the first increase in prices in three months. Core finished goods prices rose slightly more than expected but are up just 0.1% year to date.
Energy prices were unchanged following a decline in May. Market gasoline prices in early July are up moderately versus June.
Food prices rose slightly for the first increase in three months.
Core finished consumer goods prices rose 0.3%, the second strong increase in three months. Core nondurable goods prices have been strong but durable goods prices rose for just the second month this year. Capital goods prices rose slightly following three months of decline.
Intermediate goods prices rose moderately. After weakness in May, a firming trend may be developing with core intermediate prices up 0.7% YTD.
Crude goods prices fell reflecting lower energy prices. Elsewhere, the rebound in factory sector activity has lifted core crude prices 9.1% YTD.
| Producer Price Index | June | May | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.1% | -0.4% | -2.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Core | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.2% | -0.5% | -2.6% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Core | 0.2% | 0.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| Crude Goods | -3.6% | 1.7% | -11.7% | 0.3% | 22.8% | 1.5% |
| Core | 1.6% | 3.4% | 6.0% | -9.9% | 7.3% | -4.7% |
by Tom Moeller July 11, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the latest week, boosted by the annual auto industry shutdowns for plant retooling. The prior week's level, which had fallen sharply, was revised up slightly.
It was the first increase in initial claims in three weeks.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell for the seventh week in eight third week and the prior week's level was revised down.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 395,000, -0.1% y/y.
The insured rate of unemployment fell slightly to 2.8%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 7/6/02 | 6/29/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 403.0 | 387.0 | 0.2% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,639 | 22.7% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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