Global| Jan 17 2007PPI Still Quite Firm in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods gained another 0.9% last month after the 2.0% surge during November. Led by a 2.5% rise in energy prices and a 1.7% increase in food prices, the gain nearly doubled Consensus expectations [...]
The producer price index for finished goods gained another 0.9% last month after the 2.0% surge during November. Led by a 2.5% rise in energy prices and a 1.7% increase in food prices, the gain nearly doubled Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise.
The 0.2% core PPI rise calmed down after November's surprise 1.3% surge though that was double Consensus expectations for a 0.1% uptick.
The strength in finished energy goods prices was led by a 7.1% (1.8% y/y) surge in gasoline prices and a 4.0% (6.5% y/y) increase in fuel oil prices. Natural gas prices also increased 0.7% (-11.4% y/y).
Finished consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after the 1.3% November surge. Passenger car prices fell 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) but furniture prices rose 0.1% (2.1% y/y).
Capital equipment prices increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y) as light truck prices rose 0.7% (2.2% y/y) after the 13.7% November spike.
Intermediate goods prices increased another 0.5% but prices less food & energy fell again with a 0.1% downtick which reflected another decline (-0.4%, +11.6% y/y) in steel mill product prices.
The crude materials PPI surged again by 2.9% led by a strength in crude petroleum prices which has since reversed. The core crude materials PPI also was firm led by a 12.4% rebound in iron & steel scrap prices (2.8% y/y).
| Producer Price Index | December | November | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| Core | 0.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% |
| Core | -0.1% | -0.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Crude Goods | 2.9% | 15.7% | -2.4% | 1.8% | 14.6% | 17.5% |
| Core | 1.0% | 0.5% | 16.8% | 20.9% | 4.8% | 26.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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