Global| Jan 26 2016Philadelphia Fed Survey Shows Nonmanufacturing Business Conditions Deteriorating Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level fell to 15.9 in January. It was the third month of decline, sliding to the lowest level since August. [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level fell to 15.9 in January. It was the third month of decline, sliding to the lowest level since August. Expectations for general activity deteriorated to a greater extent; falling to the lowest level since August 2012. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
Lower figures for new orders and sales led the m/m deterioration, followed by unfilled orders and inventories.
On the labor front, the number of full-time employees has been moving sideways since July but part-time employment strengthened to the firmest reading since June. The length of the workweek has been roughly steady for three months but was well below the Q2 highs. Wage & benefit costs strengthened sharply during the last six months.
The index of prices paid eased m/m and remained well below the June high.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 15.9 | 25.5 | 26.3 | 8.8 | 31.5 | 39.1 | 30.0 |
| New Orders | 9.1 | 19.6 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 21.7 | 28.0 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 4.5 | 25.5 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 27.2 |
| Inventories | -2.3 | 0.0 | 5.3 | -2.9 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 11.4 | 17.6 | 10.5 | 17.6 | 15.6 | 17.4 | 19.0 |
| Prices Paid | 15.9 | 21.6 | 19.3 | 14.7 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.6 |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 29.5 | 52.9 | 50.9 | 44.1 | 54.3 | 69.4 | 47.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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