Global| Apr 26 2016Philadelphia Fed Survey of Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Index Is Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level was roughly unchanged at 17.8 in April versus 17.5 in March. The measure has been declining, however, since [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level was roughly unchanged at 17.8 in April versus 17.5 in March. The measure has been declining, however, since early last year. Working the other way, the expectations index for general activity improved sharply m/m. These diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted.
Improvement in the labor market components paced this month's overall improvement. The full-time and part-time employment figures notched higher following a sharp decline in March. The average workweek reading rebounded to the highest level since November 2014, and the wage & benefit costs reading surged to an 18-month high.
The new orders and sales indexes continued their recent downtrends, and the inventory series eased. Capital spending plans weakened as well.
The prices paid diffusion index rebounded somewhat after collapsing in March, but prices received fell to the lowest reading since September.
Expectations for general business activity improved sharply and reversed a recent downtrend.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, SA) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 17.8 | 17.5 | 25.6 | 34.9 | 31.4 | 38.8 | 29.8 |
| New Orders | 13.9 | 17.0 | 14.6 | 26.8 | 21.7 | 27.9 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 9.6 | 19.0 | 9.1 | 27.9 | 23.6 | 30.2 | 27.0 |
| Inventories | 6.5 | 8.3 | -0.5 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 7.5 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 17.3 | 18.8 |
| Prices Paid | 10.9 | 3.2 | 18.9 | 15.2 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.6 |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 56.0 | 42.2 | 30.5 | 45.2 | 54.0 | 60.1 | 47.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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