Global| Dec 22 2015Philadelphia Fed Survey; Nonmanufacturing Business Conditions Deteriorate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level fell to 25.5 in December, the lowest level since August. The reading was well below the year-ago level of 47.5, [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level fell to 25.5 in December, the lowest level since August. The reading was well below the year-ago level of 47.5, and the full-year number of 31.5 was down from 39.1 in 2014. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
A lower inventory figure of 0.0 provided the largest drag on December activity. A shorter workweek and fewer capital expenditures also weighed on business.
Offsetting much of this reduction was improvement in new and unfilled orders Revenues and full-time permanent employment also improved along with pricing power.
Expected general activity at the company level in the region rose following declines in the prior two months. Overall expected activity deteriorated, however, to the lowest level since June 2013.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'14 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 25.5 | 26.3 | 37.5 | 47.5 | 31.5 | 39.1 | 30.0 |
| New Orders | 19.6 | 15.8 | 30.0 | 25.0 | 21.7 | 28.0 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 25.5 | 22.8 | 17.5 | 32.5 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 27.2 |
| Inventories | 0.0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | -2.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 17.6 | 10.5 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 15.6 | 17.4 | 19.0 |
| Prices Paid | 21.6 | 19.3 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.6 |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 52.9 | 50.9 | 52.5 | 70.0 | 54.3 | 69.4 | 47.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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