Global| Jun 24 2015Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Survey Results Are Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity of 54.1 remained at nearly the highest level since March 2012. Strength was derived from improvement in the number of full-time [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity of 54.1 remained at nearly the highest level since March 2012. Strength was derived from improvement in the number of full-time employees, the number of part-time workers, unfilled orders and prices paid. The latter surged to the highest level since October 2012. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
New orders, sales and the average workweek eased m/m but remained sharply higher versus this winter's low. Capital expenditures also eased m/m, notably for equipment & software.
The expectations reading for the region improved slightly m/m but remained near the middle of the range since 2013. The company reading fell sharply to its lowest point since January.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | June | May | Apr | Jun'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Region | 54.1 | 54.5 | 41.0 | 51.0 | 35.9 | 25.2 | 22.5 |
| New Orders | 27.0 | 27.3 | 35.9 | 43.5 | 28.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 32.4 | 43.2 | 38.5 | 50.0 | 30.4 | 27.2 | 19.4 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 24.3 | 13.6 | 23.1 | 13.0 | 17.4 | 19.0 | 12.7 |
| Prices Paid | 35.1 | 11.4 | 17.9 | 26.1 | 19.7 | 20.6 | 20.7 |
| Expected General Activity - Region | 81.1 | 79.5 | 82.1 | 84.8 | 83.6 | 80.9 | 73.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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