Global| Oct 20 2015Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Survey Indicates Improvement
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level rose to 37.5, the highest level since June. Nevertheless, the reading remained below the year-ago level for the [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level rose to 37.5, the highest level since June. Nevertheless, the reading remained below the year-ago level for the ninth month this year. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
Improved readings for new and unfilled orders, inventories, full-time permanent employees and capital expenditures on physical plant were behind the rise in the overall October index average. Also rising was the number of part-time employees, the length of the average workweek and prices received. To the downside were sales or revenue as well as capital expenditures on equipment & software.
The expectations reading for companies in the region deteriorated slightly m/m but remained well above the year-ago level. The expected regional activity reading also gained m/m but was down versus the year ago level.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 37.5 | 26.8 | 7.7 | 44.1 | 39.1 | 30.0 | 29.9 |
| New Orders | 30.0 | 22.0 | 10.3 | 35.3 | 28.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 17.5 | 34.1 | 5.1 | 38.2 | 30.4 | 27.2 | 19.4 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 20.0 | 4.9 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 17.4 | 19.0 | 12.7 |
| Prices Paid | 17.5 | 12.2 | 23.1 | 26.5 | 19.7 | 20.6 | 20.7 |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 85.0 | 85.4 | 87.2 | 79.4 | 74.5 | 75.3 | 73.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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