Global| Sep 22 2015Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Survey Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity rose to 29.3 and stood at the highest level in three months. Nevertheless, the reading was the third consecutive figure below the [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity rose to 29.3 and stood at the highest level in three months. Nevertheless, the reading was the third consecutive figure below the level one year earlier. For Q3 2015 altogether, the index stood at 17.6, the lowest level since Q1 2013. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
Improved readings for new orders, sales and capital expenditures on plant and equipment accounted for much of the rise in the overall September index average. On the labor front the readings were mixed. Part-time payrolls, the length of the workweek and wage & benefits improved but full time employment posted the weakest reading since February 2014. Unfilled orders and inventories also eased. Finally, prices paid and received fell.
The expectations reading for the region improved slightly m/m but remained near the middle of the range since 2013. The expected company, general activity reading eased m/m but remained near the highest level since 2012.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Region | 29.3 | 15.4 | 8.1 | 42.9 | 35.9 | 25.2 | 22.5 |
| New Orders | 22.0 | 10.3 | -5.4 | 31.0 | 28.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 34.1 | 5.1 | -21.6 | 28.6 | 30.4 | 27.2 | 19.4 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 4.9 | 15.4 | 5.4 | 16.7 | 17.4 | 19.0 | 12.7 |
| Prices Paid | 12.2 | 23.1 | 18.9 | 11.9 | 19.7 | 20.6 | 20.7 |
| Expected General Activity - Region | 80.5 | 79.5 | 81.1 | 88.1 | 83.6 | 80.9 | 73.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
