Global| Feb 21 2017Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Index Improves Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions in February rose to 38.0 from 33.3 during January. It was the highest level since June 2015. Forty-four percent of respondents reported [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions in February rose to 38.0 from 33.3 during January. It was the highest level since June 2015. Forty-four percent of respondents reported an increase in current activity, while six reported less. The expectations index at the company level for January eased to 57.5, a three-month low. The regional expectations index declined to 33.0, also a three-month low.
The new orders index backed away from its two-year high with a lessened 33% of respondents reporting an increase in orders. The sales/revenues index similarly declined sharply. On the employment front, the index of full-time permanent employees declined to a three-month low, while the index for part-time or temporary employment held steady m/m. Wage & benefit cost gains weakened. The average employee workweek index declined to the lowest point since July. The capital expenditures reading on physical plant as well as equipment & software fell sharply.
The index for prices paid retraced three months of increase. The index of prices received turned negative for the first time since 2012.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, SA) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 38.0 | 33.3 | 26.1 | 26.2 | 19.7 | 31.3 | 38.7 |
| New Orders | 25.3 | 28.9 | 20.2 | 18.6 | 15.6 | 21.7 | 27.9 |
| Sales or Revenue | 32.5 | 43.5 | 20.4 | 14.0 | 16.1 | 23.6 | 30.2 |
| Inventories | 5.7 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 12.4 | 19.5 | 16.7 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 15.5 | 17.3 |
| Prices Paid | 15.3 | 29.5 | 18.1 | 18.9 | 17.5 | 19.2 | 19.7 |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 57.5 | 68.3 | 61.6 | 26.9 | 36.1 | 53.8 | 59.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
