Global| Jun 20 2017Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Conditions Improve Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions in June rose to 28.0 from 25.8 during May. The index remained down, however, versus the February high of 38.0. Forty-one percent of [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions in June rose to 28.0 from 25.8 during May. The index remained down, however, versus the February high of 38.0. Forty-one percent of respondents reported an increase in current activity while thirteen reported less. The expectations index at the company level for June declined to 48.3, down from 68.3 in January.
The new orders index improved m/m, but remained below its April level. Sales or revenue showed greater m/m gain, but also remained below January. Unfilled orders and inventories exhibited improvement. The number of full-time permanent employees rebounded from its May decline, and has been trending higher since last July. The index of part-time/temporary employment added to the prior month's decline. The average workweek reading rose slightly. Capital expenditures on plant as well as equipment declined.
The index of prices paid dropped sharply to the lowest level since December 2014. Fourteen percent of respondents paid higher prices and six percent paid less. The prices received index eased slightly while the wages and benefits index fell sharply.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 28.0 | 25.8 | 34.9 | 19.9 | 19.7 | 31.3 | 38.7 |
| New Orders | 19.7 | 15.0 | 33.5 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 21.7 | 27.9 |
| Sales or Revenue | 37.8 | 25.5 | 34.7 | 15.0 | 16.1 | 23.6 | 30.2 |
| Inventories | 8.0 | -1.9 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 19.7 | 9.3 | 26.4 | 17.3 | 11.7 | 15.5 | 17.3 |
| Prices Paid | 7.9 | 16.6 | 31.6 | 24.3 | 17.5 | 19.2 | 19.7 |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 48.3 | 49.9 | 59.1 | 38.4 | 42.9 | 53.8 | 59.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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