Global| Mar 31 2009Petroleum Prices Strengthen, Then Fall Back
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Petroleum prices continued to rally last week as sentiment continued to shift on the economy. Firmer data on U.S. consumer spending, home sales & factory orders helped lift crude oil prices to their highest level since last November. [...]
Petroleum prices continued to rally last week as sentiment continued to shift on the economy. Firmer data on U.S. consumer spending, home sales & factory orders helped lift crude oil prices to their highest level since last November. For a barrel of West Texas Intermediate prices rose to $53.09, up more than 50% from the December low of $32.37 per barrel. That bullish economic sentiment reversed somewhat yesterday, however. In futures trading the May contract price for crude oil fell back to $48.41 per barrel. Prices reached a high of $145.66 last July.
Regular gasoline prices followed the rise in crude and increased last week to $2.05 per gallon, also the highest level since last November. The latest was up 43 cents from the December low. Yesterday, the spot market price for regular gasoline turned with the drop in crude oil prices and fell nearly ten cents from Friday's level. These prices compare to those that were slightly below $1.00 at the end of last year. The figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
The price effect on driving has been little changed. Gasoline demand continued to suffer due to the effects of the U.S. recession although earlier declines in gasoline prices have given some lift to driving. The latest y/y change of -0.4% moderated from the 4.8% rate of decline seen last October. (Gasoline prices at the time were just off their peak.) The change in demand is measured using the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks in 2008. Demand for all petroleum products was down 3.2% y/y. That negative comparison was led by a 10.1% decline in distillate demand and a 7.2% drop in residual fuel oil consumption. These numbers are available in Haver's OILWKLY database.
The price of natural gas continued downward with the coming end to the winter heating season. Though prices did tick up last week to $3.92 per mmbtu (-57.7% y/y) they still were near the lowest level since 2002. The latest average price was down more than two-thirds from the high reached in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.
| Weekly Prices | 03/30/09 | 03/23/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.05 | 1.96 | -37.8% | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 53.09 | 49.46 | -49.1% | 100.16 | 72.25 | 66.12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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