Global| May 10 2004OECD Leaders Up Again, Tone Firmer
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries suggested further economic growth with a 0.3% gain in March and a 0.3% February rise which was revised from the initial 0.1% uptick. March marked the twelfth [...]
The Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries suggested further economic growth with a 0.3% gain in March and a 0.3% February rise which was revised from the initial 0.1% uptick. March marked the twelfth consecutive monthly gain.
Six-month growth in the leading index continued at 7.2% versus the high of 8.1% in December.
Leaders in Japan surged 0.6% in March following no change in February. That lifted the six-month growth rate to 3.7%, the strongest since early 2000.
The leading index for the European Union also was strong showing a third consecutive 0.4% rise in March. The six month growth rate moved to 6.2%, near the cycle high.
Spain posted the strongest monthly increase since 1991. The 1.4% gain lifted six month to 5.2%, the highest in a year. The leaders in Italy jumped the most for any one month in over two years with a 0.6% gain. That pulled the six month growth rate to a respectable 2.7%. New orders have firmed and consumer confidence may have bottomed.
Leaders in Germany added 0.2% to an upwardly revised 0.1% uptick in February but the six-month growth rate fell to 7.08%. In France the leading index ticked up 0.1% following an upwardly revised 0.6% February gain. The six-month growth rate remained firm at 7.8%. Leaders in the UK were unchanged in March following two successive 0.4% gains. The six month growth rate remained firm at 4.2%.
In Canada the leading index fell 0.1% and the six-month growth dipped to 6.9% as share prices fell with consumer sentiment. Leading indicators in the United States rose just 0.2% but February was revised to 0.5% from 0.1% and the six-month growth rate remained firm at 10.1%.
Visit the OECD's website at this website.
Analysis from 2003 of inflation in OECD countries done by the US Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| OECD Main Economic Indicators | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 121.5 | 121.1 | 7.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | -3.2% |
| European Union | 121.5 | 121.1 | 6.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | -1.9% |
| Japan | 102.7 | 102.1 | 3.4% | 1.1% | -0.5% | -4.5% |
| United States | 134.1 | 133.7 | 11.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | -3.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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