Global| Aug 11 2005OECD Leaders Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies rose in June by 0.5%, the first m/m increase this year. Six month growth in the index also improved to -0.6% from -1.6% during the prior two months. During the last ten years there has [...]
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies rose in June by 0.5%, the first m/m increase this year. Six month growth in the index also improved to -0.6% from -1.6% during the prior two months.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
Improvement was led by a 0.9% gain in the US leaders. This second consecutive monthly increase raised six month growth to 1.0%, the first positive reading since February. The Canadian leaders also were firm and rose 0.6%, raising six month growth to -1.7% from a recent low of -3.7%.
Leaders in the European Union (15 countries) managed a 0.1% increase following six consecutive months of decline. Six month growth remained negative at -0.3%.
German leaders rose for the second consecutive month. A 0.5% increase raised six month growth to -0.4%. The French leaders also rose by 0.3% but six month growth remained a negative 1.1%. The Italian leading index continued to decline. The 0.7% drop lowered six month growth to -3.3%, its worst 2001.
The UK leaders rose 0.1% after seven months of decline and six month growth remained negative at -0.9%. Japan leaders ticked up 0.2% This first increase of the year left six growth negative at -2.6%.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report is available here.
| OECD | June | May | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Leading Index | 101.63 | 101.14 | -0.4% | 102.02 | 97.55 | 96.34 |
| 6 Month Growth Rate | -0.6% | -1.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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