Global| May 23 2003OECD Leaders Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) fell in March for the second consecutive month. The 0.3% decline followed a 0.4% drop in February. The drop pulled the index 0.7% below December and 0.9% below the peak last May. Recent [...]
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) fell in March for the second consecutive month. The 0.3% decline followed a 0.4% drop in February. The drop pulled the index 0.7% below December and 0.9% below the peak last May.
Recent weakness in the leading index has been broad based amongst the member countries. Leaders for the European Union (15 countries) have been virtually unchanged since peaking last May.
The leading index in Germany has performed relatively well, falling only in March and rising 3.0% y/y). In France, the leaders have fallen in each of the last three months (-0.7% y/y). In Italy the leaders have risen for three months after three months of decline (-1.0% y/y). In the U.K. the leaders have been falling steadily since last May (-2.2% y/y).
Leaders for Japan were down in March (-0.1% y/y) for the third decline in four months. The index was pulled down by lower share prices.
For the U.S., weakness in the leading index published by the OECD mirrored weakness in the index from the Conference Board. The U.S. leading index fell in March for the second month and was down 1.2% (-0.9% y/y) from December.
For Canada, the leading indicators have been flat since December 0.4% y/y).
| OECD Main Economic Indicators | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 118.6 | 118.9 | -0.0% | 4.2% | -2.1% | 3.3% |
| European Union | 116.9 | 117.0 | 1.2% | 3.2% | -1.7% | 3.8% |
| Japan | 101.0 | 101.4 | -0.1% | 0.8% | -2.8% | 2.6% |
| United States | 129.6 | 130.2 | -0.9% | 5.9% | -2.4% | 3.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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