Global| May 07 2002Nonfarm Productivity Robust
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm labor productivity was quite strong last quarter rising at the fastest rate since 2Q83. Consensus estimates were for a 7.0% rate of growth. Output in the nonfarm business sector rose 6.3% (AR) as compared to a 5.8% rate of GDP [...]
Nonfarm labor productivity was quite strong last quarter rising at the fastest rate since 2Q83. Consensus estimates were for a 7.0% rate of growth.
Output in the nonfarm business sector rose 6.3% (AR) as compared to a 5.8% rate of GDP growth. Hours worked fell at a 2.0% rate, the seventh decline in eight quarters.
Unit Labor costs fell sharply for the second consecutive quarter, again at the fastest rate since 2Q83. Compensation growth was moderate, up slightly from 4Q01 but down sharply from the 7-9% rates of growth in 2000.
Inflation was benign with the price deflator for the nonfarm business sector declining 1.0%, the second consecutive quarterly drop. Not since 1949 has the price deflator declined for two consecutive quarters.
Despite lower prices the price-to-unit labor cost ratio, a key measure of corporate profitability, rose.
Manufacturing sector productivity growth rose at a 9.7% rate, the fastest gain since 4Q99. Unit labor costs fell at a 6.6% rate.
| Nonfarm Business Sector (SAAR) | 1Q '02 | 4Q '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output per Hour | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| Compensation | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| Unit Labor Costs | -5.3% | -3.0% | -0.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
by Tom Moeller May 7, 2002
Chain store sales in the latest week recovered all of their plunge during the prior period, and then some. Sales rose 2.1% according to BTM-UBSW during the week which straddled April and May.
For all of April, sales fell 1.0% from the March average.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 5/4/02 | 4/27/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 407.3 | 399.3 | 6.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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