Global| May 02 2014New York State Expected Business Conditions Index Falls to Recovery Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management reported that their index for business conditions, six months hence, in New York State deteriorated in April to 58.8 from 65.6 in March. It was the lowest level of the economic recovery. (A level [...]
The Institute for Supply Management reported that their index for business conditions, six months hence, in New York State deteriorated in April to 58.8 from 65.6 in March. It was the lowest level of the economic recovery. (A level above 50 indicates growth in activity. The reading of current economic conditions also fell to 50.6, the lowest level since June. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the N.Y. index and the Q/Q change in real GDP.
The prices paid index backpedaled m/m to 57.7 from 65.2. Since the figure is not seasonally adjusted, however, a comparison to 51.6 twelve months earlier is appropriate and shows a pickup in pricing power. The index of current revenues of 56.3 was down sharply from recent months, but since the figure also is not seasonally adjusted, a comparison with 51.7 twelve months ago is appropriate.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| ISM New York (Diffusion Index) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) | 58.8 | 65.6 | 76.3 | 64.0 | 65.0 | 64.9 | 66.2 |
| Current Economic Conditions (SA) | 50.6 | 52.0 | 57.0 | 58.3 | 58.4 | 55.2 | 56.9 |
| Prices Paid (NSA) | 57.7 | 65.2 | 66.7 | 51.6 | 55.3 | 56.4 | 58.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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