Global| Mar 04 2014New York State Expected Business Conditions Improve Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management reported that expectations for business conditions in New York State improved last month to the highest level since October 2010. The diffusion index level rose to 76.3 from 70.0 in January. (A [...]
The Institute for Supply Management reported that expectations for business conditions in New York State improved last month to the highest level since October 2010. The diffusion index level rose to 76.3 from 70.0 in January. (A level above 50 indicates growth in activity. The reading of current economic conditions declined to 57.0, its weakest level in five months as heavy snow fell. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the N.Y. index and the Q/Q change in real GDP.
The prices paid index surged to 66.7, the highest level since May 2011. That caused the index of current revenues to jump to 72.5, up sharply versus 68.0 during February of last year.
The ISM figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| ISM New York (Diffusion Index) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) | 76.3 | 70.0 | 73.2 | 64.1 | 65.0 | 64.9 | 66.2 |
| Current Economic Conditions (SA) | 57.0 | 64.4 | 63.8 | 58.8 | 58.4 | 55.2 | 56.9 |
| Prices Paid (NSA) | 66.7 | 63.0 | 60.0 | 59.7 | 55.3 | 56.4 | 58.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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