Global| Mar 28 2016NABE Expects Moderate 2017 Economic Growth, but Lowers 2016 Estimate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association for Business Economics projects 2.4% real economic growth in the U.S. next year following a 2.2% estimate for 2016, which was revised down from 2.6% projected in December. The gains follow a 2.4% rise in both [...]
The National Association for Business Economics projects 2.4% real economic growth in the U.S. next year following a 2.2% estimate for 2016, which was revised down from 2.6% projected in December. The gains follow a 2.4% rise in both 2015 and 2014. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to range between 2.5% and 2.5%. Growth in personal consumption expenditures is expected to moderate to 2.6% next year following 2.8% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2015. Nevertheless, these remain the strongest yearly gains since 2006. Growth expectations for business investment in equipment in 2016 eased to 4.0% from 4.9% projected earlier. Expected growth in spending on nonresidential structures held steady at 4.0%, following last year's moderate decline. Real net exports are expected to deteriorate next year, producing another drag on U.S. GDP growth as import growth of 4.2% outpaces the 3.1% gain in exports. The rate of inventory investment is expected to ease to the slowest since 2012. Growth of 7.0% next year in residential investment compares to 8.3% in 2016. It thus should continue to be the economy's strongest sector.
Housing starts are expected to average 1.37 million after a slightly lowered 2016 estimate of 1.24 million. Expected light vehicle sales of 17.4 million units next year followed a raised estimate of 17.6 million this year. Average monthly gains in payroll employment are expected to ease to 179,000 from 195,000 in 2016, which was lessened slightly. Expectations for the unemployment rate of 4.6% next year compared to a reduced estimate of 4.7% in 2016. Consumer price inflation is expected to average 2.2% next year, the quickest rate of increase since 2011. The core PCE price index should rise 1.9% next year, also the strongest gain since 2011.
The forecasted 3.04% interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes at the end of next year follows 2.50% at the end of this year. The Fed is expected to continue raising the federal funds rate to 1.88% by the end of next year. Corporate profits next year should rise 3.7% following a reduced 2.0% forecast for this year. The Federal government budget deficit is expected to be $526 billion in 2017, roughly one-third its $1.4 trillion peak in 2009.
The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Association For Business Economics | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (% Chg. SAAR) | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Nonresidential Structures | -- | 4.0 | -1.5 | 8.1 |
| Nonresidential Equipment | -- | 4.9 | 3.1 | 5.8 |
| Residential Investment | 7.0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 1.8 |
| Change in Real Business Inventories (Bil. $) | 55.4 | 58.0 | 97.5 | 68.0 |
| Real Net Exports (Bil. $) | -628.5 | -581.7 | -543.4 | -442.5 |
| Housing Starts (Mil. Units) | 1.37 | 1.24 | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Light Vehicle Sales (Mil. Units) | 17.4 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 16.4 |
| Payroll Employment Average Monthly Change (000s) | 179 | 195 | 229 | 251 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
| Consumer Price Index (Y/Y %) | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Fed Funds Rate (%, Year-End) | 1.88 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| 10-Year Treasury Note (%, Year-End) | 3.04 | 2.50 | 2.27 | 2.17 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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