Global| Nov 22 2010NABE Expectations For Economic Growth Are Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In the latest report, the National Association for Business Economics indicates that moderate U.S. economic growth will continue through next year. Expectations for 2.6% growth are unchanged from the previous forecast. Continuing to [...]
Expected improvements in housing starts and light vehicle sales have been ratcheted down slightly and levels should remain well below their pre-recession peaks. Also, gains in payroll employment have been lessened slightly as was the decline in the unemployment rate, now remaining near the current level. The moderate nature of the recovery is expected to exert the same, modest upward pressure on consumer prices. Interest rates, however, should rise less than expected last month.
Improved economic growth is projected to generate positive growth in corporate profitability. However, the 7% growth rate was revised down and is barely one-quarter the 2010 rate. Moderate growth also is expected to do little to reduce the federal government budget deficit, still at $1.1 trillion next year.
The figures from the latest NABE report can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Association For Business Economics | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (% Chg. SAAR) | 2.6 | 2.7 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 2.4 | 1.7 | -1.2 | -0.3 | 2.4 |
| Nonresidential Structures | 1.8 | -13.2 | -20.4 | 5.9 | 14.1 |
| Producers' Durable Equipment & Software | 10.8 | 14.9 | -15.3 | -2.4 | 3.7 |
| Residential Investment | 5.0 | -3.2 | -22.9 | -24.0 | -18.7 |
| Change in Real Business Inventories (Bil. $) | 54.8 | 73.3 | -113.1 | -37.6 | 27.7 |
| Real Net Exports (Bil. $) | -466.3 | -444.3 | -363.0 | -504.1 | -654.9 |
| Housing Starts (Mil. Units) | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.91 | 1.36 |
| Light Vehicle Sales (Mil. Units) | 12.6 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 16.1 |
| Payroll Employment Avg. Monthly Change (000s) | 136 | 68 | -395 | -302 | 90 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 4.6 |
| Consumer Price Index (Y/Y %) | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Fed Funds Rate (%) | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 4.25 |
| 10-Year Treasury Note (%, Year End) | 3.25 | 2.58 | 3.85 | 2.25 | 4.04 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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