Global| Aug 06 2003Mortgage Applications Tick Higher Following Sharp Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association ticked up a slight 1.1% last week following steep declines in five of the prior eight weeks. Those declines pulled applications down 47% from the peak [...]
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association ticked up a slight 1.1% last week following steep declines in five of the prior eight weeks. Those declines pulled applications down 47% from the peak reached in late May.
The slight rise in total mortgage applications reflected a 6.9% w/w rise in purchase applications. Applications for purchase were off just slightly from the record high set late in May.
During the last ten years there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance continued to reflect the effects of higher interest rates and fell 2.4% last week. That decline added to a 32.9% decline the prior week and lowered refinancings 59.4% versus the late May peak.
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage jumped 44 basis points w/w to 6.64%. That was versus a low for 30-Year financing of 5.31% in the second week of June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage surged as well to 6.07% versus the low of 4.76%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site at www.mbaa.org.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 8/01/03 | 7/25/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 983.2 | 972.4 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 456.4 | 426.9 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 4,047.5 | 4,145.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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