Global| Mar 01 2006Mortgage Applications Off Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The total number of mortgage applications dropped 1.2% last week, the fourth sharp decline in the last five weeks. The average level of applications during February fell 6.3% from the prior month. Purchase applications dropped 1.9% [...]
The total number of mortgage applications dropped 1.2% last week, the fourth sharp decline in the last five weeks. The average level of applications during February fell 6.3% from the prior month.
Purchase applications dropped 1.9% from the prior week and the February average fell 10.2% from January. The latest level is down nearly one quarter from the high last Spring.
During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% w/w but the February average fell 2.0% from January.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage slipped to 6.42% and averaged 6.48% during February versus 6.34% in January. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also slipped to 6.15% and averaged 6.16% during February versus 5.98% in January. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (>90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities and during the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between purchase applications and the effective rate on a 30-Year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
Are Banks Vulnerable to a Housing Bust? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 02/24/06 | 02/17/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 571.5 | 578.5 | -19.5% | 708.6 | 735.1 | 1,067.9 |
| Purchase | 400.8 | 408.7 | -8.9% | 470.9 | 454.5 | 395.1 |
| Refinancing | 1,573.5 | 1,571.4 | -31.0% | 2,092.3 | 2,366.8 | 4,981.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
