Global| Sep 14 2007Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up Slightly in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in early September rose 0.5% to 83.8. The increase about matched Consensus expectations for a reading of 83.5 but it was still near the lows of one year ago. [...]
The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in early September rose 0.5% to 83.8. The increase about matched Consensus expectations for a reading of 83.5 but it was still near the lows of one year ago.
Improved consumer expectations accounted for all of the slight increase with a 0.9% rise to 74.4. Here again, this was near the lows of last year.
Long term, an improved expectation for business conditions during the next 5 years accounted for all of the rise in the expectations subcomponent. Expectations about personal finances and business conditions during the next year both fell.
The view of the current economic conditions slipped 0.1% after a 5.8% slide during September. The view of current personal finances increased 1.9% (6.1% y/y) but the perspective of current buying conditions fell 1.3% for the second month slip.
The assessment of government policy fell for fifth month this year with a 1.2% (-37% y/y) decline on the heals of a 7.0% drop in August.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500 households at month-end.
| University of Michigan | September (Prelim.) | August | September y/y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 83.8 | 83.4 | -1.9% | 87.3 | 88.5 | 95.2 |
| Current Conditions | 98.3 | 98.4 | 1.8% | 105.1 | 105.9 | 105.6 |
| Expectations | 74.4 | 73.7 | -4.9% | 75.9 | 77.4 | 88.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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