Global| Nov 21 2007Michigan Consumer Sentiment Remained Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the full month of November held at the mid-month level of 75.0. That was down 7.3% from October and it pulled the average so far in 4Q 9.0% below the 3Q average. Consensus [...]
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the full month of November held at the mid-month level of 75.0. That was down 7.3% from October and it pulled the average so far in 4Q 9.0% below the 3Q average. Consensus expectations for November were for stability with the mid-month reading of 75.0.
Both major sub-indexes were down sharply for the month. The current conditions index declined to 91.0 from October's 97.6, the weakest since March 2003. Expectations fell to 64.7 from 70.1 in October, the lowest reading since October 2005.
Current buying conditions compared to one year ago fell by half from where it was last year and the expected change in business conditions in the next 12 months also fell sharply. Current personal finances fell 9.0% and expectations for personal finances also fell. One-year expectations for business conditions fell but expectations for the next five years improved slightly from October's depressed level.
Expectations for inflation during the next twelve months jumped to 4.3% from 3.7% in October. The 2006 expectations were for 3.9% inflation this year. For the next five to ten years expectations were for a 3.4% rise in prices, equal to the expectation logged last year.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500 households at month-end; the mid-month results are based on about 300 interviews. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON database, with details in the proprietary UMSCA database.
The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee Meeting can be found here.
| University of Michigan | Nov ( Final) | Nov (Prelim) | Oct | Nov y/y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 75.0 | 75.0 | 80.9 | -18.6% | 87.3 | 88.5 | 95.2 |
| Current Conditions | 91.0 | 91.0 | 97.6 | -14.2% | 105.1 | 105.9 | 105.6 |
| Expectations | 64.7 | 64.7 | 70.1 | -22.2% | 75.9 | 77.4 | 88.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
