Global| Nov 27 2009Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves From Mid-Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment during all of November improved from mid-month to a reading of 67.4 as measured by the Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. The figure about matched Consensus expectations. Despite recent [...]
Consumer sentiment during all of November improved from
mid-month to a reading of 67.4 as measured by the Reuters/University of
Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. The figure about matched
Consensus expectations. Despite recent declines, sentiment was up by
nearly one-quarter from the lows of last fall. During the last ten
years there has been a two-thirds correlation between the level of
sentiment and the three-month change real consumer spending.
The November reading on expected economic conditions fell to
66.5 from October's 68.6, although it did improve from mid-month. The
primary weakness came in survey participants' outlook for business
conditions over the next year. This move seems to show that the rise in
September was a temporary blip. The reading of expected personal
finances also fell to the lowest since August as more respondents felt
that their personal finances would worsen .
The reading of current economic conditions fell from October and from mid-month. People's assessments of their current financial condition and buying conditions for large household goods both moved down to their lowest since August.
Expected price inflation during the next year slipped to 3.1%,
down from October's 3.2% but up from the December reading of
1.7%.Respondents' view of government policy, which may eventually
influence economic expectations, improved from October and remained up
significantly from the low of October 2008. Nineteen percent of
respondent thought that a good job was being done by government versus
30% who thought a poor job was being done.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500 households at month-end. These mid-month results are based on about 320 interviews. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON database with details in the proprietary UMSCA database.
| University of Michigan | November | Mid-November | October | September | Nov y/y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 67.4 | 66.0 | 70.6 | 73.5 | 21.9% | 63.8 | 85.6 | 87.3 |
| Current Conditions | 68.8 | 69.6 | 73.7 | 73.4 | 19.7 | 73.7 | 101.2 | 105.1 |
| Expectations | 66.5 | 63.7 | 68.6 | 73.5 | 23.4 | 57.3 | 75.6 | 75.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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