Global| Mar 28 2008Michigan Consumer Sentiment Fell Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for all of March fell 1.8% m/m to 69.5. That was larger than the 0.4% decline in the preliminary reading and it was just slightly greater than Consensus expectations for a reading [...]
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for all of March fell 1.8% m/m to 69.5. That was larger than the 0.4% decline in the preliminary reading and it was just slightly greater than Consensus expectations for a reading of 70.
The index of expected business conditions during the next year still accounted for all of the decline in March sentiment. The 3.7% decline followed an 8.4% February drop and left the index at its lowest since early 1992. Expectations for business conditions during the next year fell 14.8% (-51.6% y/y). hat m/m drop was double the decline in the preliminary report. And expectations for conditions over the next five years fell m/m rather than rose. Expectations for personal finances also were unchanged rather than posting a slight rise.
Opinions about government policy fell slightly m/m (-23.6% y/y) following the sharp 11.5% drop during February. The percentage of those surveyed who indicated that they thought government was doing a good job rose somewhat but 44% had a poor opinion.
Expectations for inflation during the next twelve months surged to 4.6%, the highest level in nearly two years though inflation expectations during the next five to ten years fell slightly to 3.3%. That was the same expectation as in the preliminary reading.
The current conditions index fell 0.5% m/m after the 11.2% February plunge. The view of current conditions for buying large household goods improved slightly but the view of current personal finances fell for the fourth month in the last five (-16.2% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500 households at month-end; the mid-month results are based on about 300 interviews. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON database, with details in the proprietary UMSCA database.
| University of Michigan | March | March (Prelim) | Feb | Jan | March y/y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 69.5 | 70.5 | 70.8 | 78.4 | -21.4% | 85.6 | 87.3 | 88.5 |
| Current Conditions | 84.2 | 84.6 | 83.8 | 94.4 | -18.6% | 101.2 | 105.1 | 105.9 |
| Expectations | 60.1 | 61.4 | 62.4 | 68.1 | -23.6% | 75.6 | 75.9 | 77.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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