Global| Oct 11 2006Lower Gasoline Prices Helped Lift Chain Store Sales
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell for the ninth consecutive week. The nickel decline last week lowered the price to an average $2.26 (-20.6% y/y) and was to the lowest level since February.
The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell for the ninth consecutive week. The nickel decline last week lowered the price to an average $2.26 (-20.6% y/y) and was to the lowest level since February.
Moreover, the earlier decline in spot market prices resumed this week. In trading yesterday, the NY harbor price for regular unleaded gasoline fell to $1.48 per gallon versus an average $1.54 averaged during each of the prior two weeks.
For the opening week of October, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS indicated that chain store sales rose 0.5% following four consecutive weeks of decline. The gain still left sales 0.5% below the average of sales in September which fell 0.5% from August.
During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose again by 0.3%, the fourth gain in the last five weeks. The indicator in September rose 0.3% from the August average. Though slight (and downwardly revised), it was the first m/m rise since June.The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 10/07/06 | 09/30/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 465.4 | 463.0 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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